The circumstance for this UEFA Champions League return leg is drastically different from just weeks ago.
A 2-2 draw in Paris is gigantically superior to a 2-0 deficit, yet, the team should approach Paris Saint-Germain not vastly differently to AC Milan.
The objective must certainly be to score, multiple times, if not simply because Tito Vilanova cannot plan the match realistically believing the team will keep a clean sheet. More after the jump.
I watch a bit of PSG. Well, full disclosure, I try my best to watch PSG in Ligue 1 but rarely can stomach a full match of what is usually insipid and lethargic football that predictably concludes with a Zlatan heroic.
It makes sense, PSG hire mercenaries to win trophies but none of those players ever dreamed of playing in Paris, and frankly they cannot motivate themselves to peak performance on a Saturday afternoon versus Stade Brestois 29.
But last week was different. I am open to correction but aside from Maxwell and Beckham, no other PSG player has a Champions League medal to his name, and that was the motivation needed to produce PSG’s best performance of their season,
both my opinion and that of the journalists closest to them. 2-2 is certainly advantage FC Barcelona, but the threat from set-pieces was only too evident in France and then names like Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Javier Pastore,
Ezequiel Lavezzi, Lucas Moura, and Thiago Silva sprinkled with some David Beckham, Jérémy Ménez, and Marco Verratti are concern enough.
Then there is Lionel Messi, or rather, will there be Lionel Messi?
His blood ran red, to the disappointment of many, so an extraterrestrial he is not, still his recoveries from injury of late have been nothing short of alien.
My guess is he will play, but is there concern if he does not?
Yes, a 5-0 demolition of Mallorca was enjoyable, Fàbregas and Alexis ran riot, but a home match versus the worst team in Spain is not a Wednesday night versus some of the game’s finest individuals hungry for validation.
‘Messi-dependence’ is a term cules dislike, it’s too often exaggerated, but it’s simultaneously hard to argue the numbers.
If one takes a ratio of top goalscorer (always Messi) to next highest scorer since Pep Guardiola’s debut year, a trend emerges: 1.06, 2.04, 2.3, 4.87, and currently 3.93.
Messi’s importance has grown to scoring just more than Samuel Eto’o in 2008/9 to doubling his teammates and most recently scoring nearly 5 times more than anyone else.
That is far from exact correlation, clearly without Messi others would inevitably pick up the slack, but his importance is never more clear than in tight matches versus well-drilled defensive setups.
PSG need to score, but what if they score first, a bumbled in corner perhaps, then sit back in the mold of Inter Milan and Chelsea and La Pulga isn’t there to create space, assists, and goals.
And defensively?
Officially only Mascherano is absolutely out, but Puyol isn’t even near top fitness, Abidal just made a return after about one year, Bartra lacks this level of experience,
Song has proven himself a mess at the back, and while Piqué has proven himself class, even the most fervent of us cannot say this year’s performances instill total confidence.
Choosing Piqué’s partner, and the permutations it creates, is Tito Vilanova’s most critical decision.
Team News
FC Barcelona
Javier Mascherano is sidelined, Pedro and Adriano are expected to be available, and Lionel Messi will be a game-time decision.
Line-up wise, the permutations depend on Piqué’s partner and Messi’s inclusion.
Tito could leave Busquets at his best in the midfield and trust in Bartra, or Busi may move backwards into a position he plays competently and create space for an inform Cesc to enter and focus more on ball retention than classical defending.
Has Song earned enough faith?
Can Alexis’s industry be sacrificed for the poacher Villa? All questions, of which there are many more, to be answered soon enough.
Predicted line-up: Valdés; Alves, Piqué, Busquets, Alba; Xavi, Fàbregas, Iniesta; Alexis, Messi, Villa
PSG
Both ‘Thiagos’, Silva and Motta have made the traveling squad.
Blaise Matuidi’s suspension is Carlo Ancelotti’s only proper personnel absentee.
His role as destroyer will almost certainly be filled by former blaugrana Motta.
David Beckham will start again to fulfill his role as chief engineer of a more direct approach and set-piece executioner.
Be under no illusions, PSG will have been practicing many variants of dead-balls over the past days.
Predicted line-up: Sirigu; Jallet, T. Silva, Alex, Maxwell; Beckham, T. Motta; Moura, Pastore, Lavezzi; Ibrahimovic
Squad (23, 5 to drop): Alex, Areola, Armand, Beckham, Camara, Chantome, Douchez, Gameiro, Ibrahimovic, Jallet, Lavezzi, Le Crom, Lucas, Maxwell, Ménez, Pastore, Sakho, Sirigu, Motta, Silva, Tiéné, Van der Wiel, Verratti
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